I have been playing poker for several years now and all the TV advertisements caused me to switch to Texas Hold’em and also play online. Before that I primarily used to play the classic poker (5 card draw) in cash games. I also played some other variants but not on a regular basis. Generally not a good idea as you should concentrate on one version instead of trying to master 3 or 4 of them at the same time.
There are 2 main reasons for me succeeding despite that. On the one hand the amount of quality players was quite low when I started playing compared to now and you could be sure to find some easy prey on any given table. On the other hand I have always been a mathematics freak in school and poker invites you to put your mathematics knowledge to good use. I probably don’t need to point out that back then I have calculated all the chances for each hand with enthusiasm (and pen and paper and lots of spare time).
I remember at one point simulating poker games for nearly a month (and I am not talking about a computer simulation – I simply dealt the cards for several non-existing players and tried to roughly evaluate my hand). Of course that method was somewhat painstaking and tedious and by no means perfect but nonetheless I managed to find basic values of various pocket card combinations (I had no specific literature on this topic nor access to the internet – even if I had I doubt at that early stage I would have found any useful information on poker odds).
This exercise brought a certain confidence to my game because my little “experiments” made me aware of the simple fact that a winning chance of 60% meant nothing else than statistically losing 40% of the time. Not the perfect condition to bet all my money unless I am forced to since according to the laws of mathematics I would lose it all 2 times out of 5. You will have to decide for yourself where the magic number lies for going all-in, I personally usually draw the line very clearly above the mentioned 60%.
So how can you determine the odds of you winning? Well, of course it helps tremendously to know the hand of your opponent. There are various ways to draw some conclusions if you have paid attention to your opponent and his actions (for 5 card draw the amount of drawn cards is of course a huge factor, but in general you should pay attention to a lot more – and I am not talking about blinking, humming, clearing one’s throat and such). But even apart from my opponents’ betting behaviour it is important to know my chance on getting a certain hand. What good is it that someone else only has a small pair if I don’t even have that?
At the same time you should be aware that solely concentrating on your own hand can end badly. A good poker player “knows” the hand of his opponent. Take a close look at TV poker events. A lot of the time the remaining two players of a hand can guess pretty much what cards the other one holds. The poker pros usually guess correctly and that has to do with a lot of experience, instinct and intuition and of course the fact that they are experts in studying people before and during a tournament. While I am still an amateur in that area I already profit from that in most of the tournaments and cash games that I participate in.
Try this little exercise: whenever you have only one or two opponents remaining in any given hand that you play try to conclude what cards they hold and play accordingly. Whenever it comes to a showdown check whether you were right with your educated guess. Making yourself aware is the first and very important step. Even if you may have been wrong the first few times you will notice that you will be able to assess your opponents’ hands better and better with time and eventually you will be able to avoid stupid losses – at least if you have the strength to fold a hand and accept the loss of the money that you have bet so far.
In order for you to practice assessing pocket cards I urge you to try the Poker Odds Calculator – use any pocket cards that you like and try to evaluate the odds for each in your head or from your guts and then look at the calculated odds. Once you manage to get a rough grip on that you will realise that your game improves dramatically. I promise!