Poker Blog

There is an age-old adage that says everything you need to know about a person can be found in their eyes. For the most part, it’s not really true. But in the world of live poker, it really is all about the eyes.

I discovered long ago that just watching the eyes of your opponent, especially on the flop, you can learn a lot of information.

Eye Before the Flop

When an opponent first looks at their hole cards, you may see the eyes widen, or the eyebrows raise, ever so slightly. This translates to the player being rather thrilled with his or her holdings. Pocket Aces, A-K suited or A-K off-suit are likely.

Eyes On the Flop

Always watch their eyes when the first three cards hit the board. Some players have actually been known to roll their eyes when the flop comes down with an Ace. It’s a very clear sign that the player’s Kings, or some other high pocket pair, were just potentially beaten by whoever may have paired the Ace.

You might even notice some players becoming downright gleeful after the Flop. It only lasts for a very brief moment as they suddenly remember where they are! But it is easily detected by anyone paying just a little attention to a players eyes. Take note of what just flopped and see if you can figure out how it improved their hand. Just assume they have the nuts at this point and you’ll be pretty close, if not dead on.

Take note of any player who takes a second look at his hole cards. It is the sign of a very weak poker player who cannot remember what he was dealt, but it does happen. If the Flop was 3-card suited, his hand is off-suit and he’s looking to see if he has one of the Flopped suit. If there are two suited cards on the board, his hole cards are suited and he’s double-checking to see if he’s hit a Flush Draw.

Eyeing the Pros

Watching a player’s eyes may not be quite as effective against professional or highly experienced poker players, as they’ve trained themselves to be brick walls that do not react visibly to any situation in a poker game. That should tell you something very important right there. What’s the lesson here, boys and girls? Mirror the pros and never let yourself react to any situation in an observable manner.

On a final note, there’s one rather neat experience you may come across when playing a veteran. This occurs when you attempt to read a player’s eyes and find your opponent looking back into your own eyes. This momentary meeting of the eyes causes two things to happen. First, you realize just how attentive this opponent is, so you can assume he’s playing a better game than some complete noob. Second, he gains a much higher respect for you, probably giving you more credit than you really deserve. The benefit here is that he’ll almost always fold when you raise.

Anyone who has ever shoved all-in on pocket Aces pre-flop, and lost to an 8-high straight that came in on the river, has experienced the reality of variance as it applies to the statistical nature of poker. No matter how carefully the outs have been counting, the odds calculated, and the rules of poker statistics followed, we are eternally destined to occasionally lose with a great hand, as well as fold a terrible hand that would have won the pot if we had stayed in to play it. This inevitable mathematical consequence is what we call “variance”.

Variance in poker is the result of the information we don’t know in the course of the hand. Variance could also be equated with luck. We can’t know how many of our outs our opponents are holding, or how far down the deck that Ace of diamonds that would give us the nut flush is. Three of your outs could have been ‘burned’ in the course of dealing to the board.

When examining a line graph of big bets won and lost over the course of a significant number of hands, it is not uncommon to find it is riddled with sharp peaks and valleys which represent the natural variance in poker. As long as the upswings and downswings ultimately result in a gradually increasing rise in overall profits, things are going well.

A certain measure of variance in poker is unavoidable. Even when you do everything right, the natural uncertainty that goes hand-in-hand with poker will inevitably cause your win rate to fluctuate – sometimes wildly – and there is simply no way to change that. No one wins at poker 100% of the time. What we can do is evaluate hand histories in order to correct mistakes that lead to avoidable losses, which will reduce the amount of variance we experience. But we cannot completely rid ourselves of variance.

It is natural for us to examine and re-examine the huge pots we have lost for clues as to how we might win next time we are faced with that exact situation. However, poker players generally tend to play at the peak of their abilities when the pot reaches a sizable amount. Many players overlook the value of small pots, and, therefore, are less alert when the stakes are relatively low. By taking the time to review the smaller pots that you have lost, you may be able to identify leaks in your game that can be easily corrected.

Part of what makes poker so popular is the element of chance combined with the opportunity to apply a great deal of poker strategy. No matter how much a player has studied the various approaches to each poker form, every hand played is still a gamble. Variance in poker is perfectly natural. The key to earning the maximum profit possible is to make good decisions in every hand, no matter how much – or how little – is at stake.